You work on a payments platform where merchants can submit evidence to contest chargebacks. Your team wants to understand which types of evidence actually improve a merchant's chance of winning a dispute, so you can build guidance or automation around it.
You have access to roughly a million resolved disputes, each with metadata about what evidence the merchant submitted and whether they won. How would you design the analysis, and what are the biggest threats to drawing valid conclusions from it?
Practice against the follow-up probes
- Before you run any numbers, what does your outcome variable actually measure, and what could make it a noisy or biased proxy for what you care about?
- Merchants who submit stronger evidence may differ systematically from those who submit weaker evidence. How does that shape what your win-rate comparisons actually tell you?
- Your analysis finds that submitting delivery confirmation is correlated with a large win-rate lift. A PM wants to turn that into a feature that auto-assembles evidence packets. What questions would you want answered before endorsing that product decision?
- How would your analysis approach differ for merchants selling digital goods versus physical goods, and why does that distinction matter?
- Suppose you later discover that disputes where a refund had already been issued were mixed into the dataset. How does that affect your conclusions, and what would you do about it?
Show answer guide
What the interviewer is probing
This question tests whether the candidate treats an observational dataset as a causal claim waiting to be made, or as something requiring careful framing of selection effects and confounds. It surfaces metric judgment (win rate as a noisy outcome), causal reasoning (why correlated evidence features are not necessarily the cause of wins), and data-quality awareness (refund contamination, timing artifacts, merchant heterogeneity). A strong candidate will separate descriptive findings from prescriptive recommendations without a causal identification strategy.
What a strong answer covers
Must establish
- Win rate on submitted disputes is a biased sample: merchants who submit evidence at all differ from those who do not, and merchants who submit stronger evidence likely differ on unobservables like order quality, customer segment, and dispute legitimacy. Raw win-rate comparisons are descriptive, not causal.
- The outcome variable conflates genuinely legitimate disputes won on merit with disputes won for procedural reasons, and disputes involving already-issued refunds are a distinct population that can dramatically inflate apparent win rates for certain evidence types if not separated out.
- Any guidance or automation derived from this analysis must account for the timing dimension: evidence value depends on the state of the underlying process at submission time, not just the type of evidence submitted.
A strong answer adds
- Segment the analysis by dispute reason code, merchant category, and goods type before computing any aggregate lifts, because the evidence that matters for a digital-goods dispute is structurally different from physical-goods evidence, and pooling them obscures both.
- Name the selection mechanism explicitly: merchants with better logistics infrastructure are more likely to have delivery confirmation available AND more likely to win for reasons unrelated to the evidence itself, so the observed lift is an upper bound on the causal effect.
- Propose a partial identification strategy: even without randomization, controlling for observable merchant and dispute characteristics via matching or regression narrows the confounded range, and a sensitivity analysis shows how large an unobserved confounder would have to be to explain away the finding.
- For the product decision, distinguish between evidence that helps issuers verify facts they could not otherwise confirm versus evidence that merely signals merchant sophistication, because only the former supports a durable causal story.
- Flag that automated evidence assembly changes the distribution of submitted packets going forward, so historical win rates become less predictive once the intervention is deployed at scale.
Exceptional depth
- The refund-contamination case is an instance of a broader collider-bias problem: conditioning on 'disputed after refund' opens a path between refund channel and win rate that does not exist in the non-refunded population, and naive stratification on refund presence versus absence does not fully close it.
- If the platform controls evidence submission timing for some merchants through automation, that creates a natural experiment on timing effects, but only if assignment to automation was not correlated with merchant risk profile, which must be verified before exploiting it.
Common misses
- Treats win-rate differences between evidence-submitting and non-submitting merchants as a direct estimate of the causal effect of submitting that evidence.
- Does not separate disputes where a refund was already issued before analysis, allowing a mechanically near-certain win to inflate lift estimates for refund-related evidence types.
- Pools physical and digital goods disputes and reports a single aggregate lift, missing that the evidence types, issuer verification mechanisms, and baseline win rates differ structurally across these populations.
- Recommends automating evidence submission based on correlation findings without noting that automation changes the composition of submitted disputes, potentially eroding the observed lift over time.
- Ignores timing as a dimension of evidence quality, treating a tracking number submitted while a package is in transit as equivalent to one submitted after confirmed delivery.
The underlying concept
Observational win-rate analysis in dispute data is a selection problem: the population of merchants who submit each evidence type is not a random draw from all disputing merchants. Merchants with better logistics, more sophisticated operations, or more legitimate underlying transactions are both more likely to have strong evidence available and more likely to win regardless of what they submit. This means raw lift estimates are confounded upper bounds, not causal effects. The standard remedy is to control for observable differences and perform sensitivity analysis on unobservables, while being explicit that the result is a narrowed range rather than a point estimate. A separate contamination issue arises when a subpopulation with a near-certain mechanical outcome, such as disputes filed after a full refund, is mixed into the analysis: their high win rates inflate lift estimates for any evidence feature that co-occurs with refunds. Clean analysis requires identifying and isolating these subpopulations before computing any comparison.
Source
Derived from Analyzing the evidence that helps businesses win “product not received” disputes